AGP Executive Report

Artemis Accords: Türkiye became the 71st signatory to NASA’s Artemis framework, with Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır signing in Washington—aimed at peaceful, transparent Moon and Mars exploration and data sharing. Makkah Defence Alliance: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan moved to institutionalize their Aug. 7 pact, agreeing to set up a Riyadh secretariat and naming Pakistan’s first secretary general for a three-year term, as the alliance seeks a NATO-style “attack on all” deterrence model. Regional Air Defence Race: Israel and Greece signed the “Achilles Shield” deal (about $3.5–$3.6bn) for a multilayered air defence network, combining systems like David’s Sling, Barak MX and Spyder—an upgrade that analysts link to rising tensions involving Turkey. Turkish Defence Industry: Five Turkish firms placed in Defense News’ Top 100 list, led by Aselsan (up to 40th), with strong 2025 sales growth across the group. Maritime Security & Logistics: Somali and Turkish navies freed the hijacked MV Latuf and killed 14 pirates; separately, Turkish container operator Akkon suspended calls to Russian ports over security risks, adding pressure to Black Sea shipping flows. Energy/Trade Infrastructure: Iraq is accelerating plans for new oil pipeline links to Turkey and Syria to bypass Hormuz disruptions, targeting nearly 2.2m bpd capacity.

Makkah Defence Alliance: Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia kicked off the first Strategic Political and Defence Committee meeting in Istanbul, aiming to turn the Mecca pact into a more structured deterrence framework, including a permanent secretariat in Riyadh and expanded defence-industry cooperation such as joint technology and production. Air Defence Race: Greece signed a €3bn “Achilles Shield” deal with Israel to build a multilayer air defence network, a move that underlines how regional military procurement is intensifying alongside Turkey’s own defence-industrial push. Turkish Aerospace Milestone: TUSAŞ/TAI flew the first production-representative Hürjet jet trainer for the Turkish Air Force, with deliveries planned from 2027, strengthening Türkiye’s advanced aviation manufacturing pipeline. Economy Watch: TurkStat reported Türkiye’s 2Q GDP growth at 2.3% y/y, while economists expect August inflation to ease to 31.52% ahead of the Sept. 3 release. Logistics & Trade: DP World plans to start building a $288m dry port in Tashkent in October 2026, targeting rail-road freight, warehousing and customs capacity. Maritime Risk: A Russian-flagged cargo ship attacked near Novorossiysk drifted and ran aground on a Turkish beach, adding to Black Sea shipping security concerns.

Black Sea Shipping Risk: Turkish shipowners warn Ukraine-linked attacks are forcing vessels out of service and pushing insurance and operating costs up, raising bankruptcy fears for merchant fleets. Mecca Pact in Motion: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan kick off the first Strategic Political and Defence Committee meeting in Istanbul, with ministers and top commanders set to discuss defense coordination, interoperability and joint production. SCO Summit Watch: Erdogan is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek alongside Putin and Xi, as leaders weigh regional security and trade/energy cooperation. Iran Pressure Escalates: The US strikes Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and signals further sanctions on banks tied to Iran transactions, intensifying pressure on regional energy and shipping routes. Tech & Consumer Demand: Middle East smartphone shipments excluding Turkey fell 19% y/y as higher prices and uncertainty push buyers toward premium devices. Aegean Arms Race: Greece is set to sign a major air-defense deal with Israel amid rising Greek-Turkish tensions and drone incidents near disputed islands.

Regional Defence Talks: Turkey will host the first ministerial committee meeting under the new “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” in Istanbul on Monday, bringing together foreign and defence ministers plus chiefs of staff from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to set the pact’s operating details, including defence coordination, interoperability and defence-industry cooperation such as joint production and development. Turkish Exports: TurkStat data shows Türkiye’s exports rose 2.9% year-on-year to a record July monthly high of $25.62bn, while imports climbed 5.1% to $32.97bn, widening the trade deficit to $7.34bn. Aegean Maritime Tensions: Greece is set to raise objections at an EU foreign ministers meeting over Türkiye’s newly declared Aegean marine parks, arguing they violate international law. Aviation Milestone: Türkiye’s indigenous HÜRJET advanced jet trainer/light combat aircraft completed its first flight after ground and taxi tests, marking a step toward delivery to the Turkish Air Force. Maritime Safety: A passenger ferry capsized off northern Cyprus with at least seven deaths and more than 172 rescues, as authorities continue search-and-rescue and investigate the cause.

Black Sea Shipping Tensions: Turkey summoned Ukraine’s ambassador after drone strikes hit two Turkish-operated cargo ships near Russia’s Tuapse, injuring five and raising fears of wider supply-chain disruption. Maritime Security: Turkish and Somali forces freed the Cameroon-flagged MV Latuf from pirates off Puntland; authorities said 14 pirates were killed and boats destroyed. Defense Deals in the Region: Greece is set to sign a $3.6b air-defense deal with Israel, dubbed “Achilles Shield,” aimed at threats from Turkey and Iran, while Turkey’s drone ecosystem keeps spreading across MENA. Renewables Cooperation: President Erdoğan approved a Turkey–Saudi framework for renewable projects, including 1,000 MW solar plants in Sivas and Karaman and a further 3,000 MW pipeline. Industrial Signals: Turkey’s high-tech manufacturing output and domestic solar generation hit new milestones, alongside a reported financing push for manufacturers. Trade & Finance Watch: US sanctions are increasingly squeezing Iran’s hard-currency access, but experts warn regime collapse is not automatic.

Black Sea Shipping Under Fire: Türkiye summoned Ukraine’s ambassador after drone attacks hit two Turkish-operated vessels near Tuapse, with a fire on Lider Bordo Mavi and injuries reported, while Lider Kocatepe was also damaged during towing—raising fresh concerns for civilian navigation and the marine environment. Tourism Cost Pressure: Bloomberg reports Turkey’s “value for money” edge is fading as hotel, dining and leisure prices rise alongside the lira’s depreciation policy, pushing some European visitors to look elsewhere. SCO Summit in Bishkek: Leaders of 17 countries plus UN chief António Guterres will attend the SCO summit on Sept. 1, with Türkiye’s Erdoğan among the expected participants. Defense Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan held calls with Qatar and Egypt to coordinate on regional and maritime-security issues. Manufacturing & Industry Finance: Türkiye unveiled a large financing package for manufacturers, while coverage also points to growth in high-tech production. Aviation Demand: Türkiye saw a sharp jump in UAV pilot applications in 2026, with millions of drones registered.

Aegean Tensions: Turkey said Greece’s new Special Spatial Planning Framework for Industry and the Supply Chain covering parts of the Aegean has “no legal consequences” for Ankara, urging Athens to stick to the 2023 Athens Declaration. AI Governance: Türkiye approved a National Artificial Intelligence Board chaired by President Erdoğan to set AI priorities, steer investment and publish annual progress, alongside an ethics board to guide bias, data use and oversight. Energy & Industry Finance: Erdoğan approved a Türkiye–Saudi renewable energy framework for solar plants in Sivas and Karaman (1,000 MW each) with further 3,000 MW in phases. Manufacturing Push: Türkiye unveiled a large financing package aimed at manufacturers, as confidence and high-tech output continue to be highlighted in recent coverage. Maritime Security & Trade Routes: With the Strait of Hormuz reopening discussed via a temporary Iran–Oman corridor, shipping risk remains a live issue for regional logistics and energy flows. Defense Diplomacy: Turkey’s role in the evolving Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and wider regional security architecture continues to draw attention, including India’s stated concerns.

Manufacturing Finance: Türkiye unveiled a 250 billion lira employment-linked financing package for manufacturers, with grace periods up to six months and maturities up to 36 months, and a ministry-backed cost reduction for firms that keep employment levels steady. Energy Push: Domestic and solar power hit record monthly highs in July, with solar reaching 5.37 billion kWh and renewables delivering 58.2% of total generation. Industrial Scale-Up: TurkStat says Türkiye’s high-tech manufacturing production value crossed 1 trillion lira in 2025, with high-tech enterprises rising 40% over five years. Trade & Reconstruction: Turkey’s trade with Syria jumped 42% to $3.75 billion, as Ankara steps up support for Aleppo’s industrial revival. Regional Shipping Risk: Turkish shipowners warn Black Sea attacks could drive operators toward bankruptcy, pushing some vessels into long-term lay-up. AI for Healthcare: Researchers in Turkey propose a privacy-preserving machine-learning framework to build predictive models across institutions without pooling sensitive raw data. Security Pact: Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formalized the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, with Pakistan calling it a “message of unity and peace.”

EU Carbon Rules for Industry: Hyundai Steel briefed Turkish auto-parts clients in Izmit and Bursa on the EU’s CBAM, including expanding coverage to steel derivatives, auto parts and home appliances, and what firms need to do to stay compliant. Black Sea Security Procurement: Bulgaria approved the purchase of seven mine-hunting ships to expand NATO-aligned mine countermeasures with Romania and Türkiye, aiming to better protect shipping routes. Iran Trade Pressure: Iran’s president urged Muslim states not to let their soil be used for attacks, as the US escalates sanctions threats and Tehran scrambles to sustain trade. Strait of Hormuz Risk for Shipping: Reports of another tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz underline how quickly maritime disruption is spreading across the region’s energy supply chain. Ukraine Industrial Hit: Russia’s long attack wave targeted ports, grain storage, energy and industry, with multiple missile and drone interceptions reported. Türkiye–Iraq Logistics Push: Türkiye and Iraq are deepening cooperation around Baghdad’s Development Road corridor, seeking an overland route to Europe amid Hormuz disruption. Public Access vs Water Use: A dam-related dispute in Michigan highlights how licensing renewals can reshape access to water resources.

Turkey’s Green Push: Türkiye published the regulation for its Emissions Trading System (TR ETS), aiming to cut greenhouse gases and align monitoring and market rules with the EU ETS. Competition & Pharma: Turkey’s Competition Board opened an investigation into Israeli drugmaker Teva over claims it used patent tactics and misleading steps to block generics. Energy Links: Armenia said it is discussing electricity imports with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Türkiye, including an EU-funded converter station on the Georgia border. Sunflower Supply: Turkey will cut sunflower seed import tariffs earlier than usual for the 2026/27 season to protect processor input costs and limit refined oil price pressure. Mining & Labor: Turkish courts ordered pretrial detention of two mine union leaders over social media posts, with unions calling it a move to silence protests over unpaid wages. Trade & Industry Snapshot: New data shows services dominate Türkiye’s enterprises and employment, while manufacturing remains concentrated in low-technology activities. Regional Security: Ankara welcomed SDF/YPG dissolution in Syria, reiterating support for a stable, unified Syria.

Sanctions Push: Zelenskyy’s Capitol Hill pitch helped unlock a major Russia sanctions package in the US Senate, with lawmakers framing it as both military support and morale boost—while next steps remain unclear. Defence Industry Partnership: Nigeria reiterated its drive for a self-reliant defence industrial base and renewed focus on technology transfer and local production with Türkiye at the 7th Nigeria–Türkiye defence forum in Abuja. Regional Security Realignment: Commentary and analysis around the Türkiye–Pakistan–Saudi “Mecca pact” points to a potential new Middle East security architecture and knock-on effects for Iran and US influence. Cyber & Tech Security: The US disrupted a Chinese hacking operation targeting sensitive networks tied to the Justice Department, NASA and the Federal Reserve; China denied the claims and accused Washington of smearing. Turkey’s Trade & Logistics: Turkey’s TUSAF chairman urged wheat supply diversification amid Black Sea shipping risks, as millers look to alternative origins to manage war-risk insurance and freight spikes. Energy Routes Watch: Bulgaria’s renegotiation of its BOTAŞ gas deal highlights how Turkey-linked LNG access is reshaping regional energy security after Russia cuts. AI in Defence: NATO’s Indo-Pacific Four partners are urged to learn from NATO’s AI-enabled decision support as they move toward AI integration in military planning.

Turkey-EU Trade: Turkey was the EU’s fifth-largest goods trading partner in Q2 2026, with two-way trade of €52.8bn, though exports and imports both softened year-on-year. Defence Industry Push: Nigeria and Türkiye used the 7th Defence Industry Business Forum in Abuja to stress a shift from buying platforms to joint production, technology transfer, local manufacturing and R&D under Nigeria’s DICON Act. Lobbying Spotlight: Türkiye’s Defense Ministry hired a Trump-linked US lobbying firm (Ballard Partners) on a $2.4m contract, according to US filings. ADEX 2026 Line-up: Lockheed Martin and SIG SAUER will debut at Azerbaijan’s ADEX 2026, with Türkiye’s ROKETSAN as main sponsor and major Turkish defence firms also confirmed. Energy Security Tensions: Iran’s IRGC says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed unless the US accepts Tehran’s conditions, even as Iran and Oman agree on revenue and control terms. Cyber Risk Watch: A report flags a July spike in ransomware victim listings, with industrial firms among the most targeted. E-Export Momentum: Istanbul will host IGEXX 2026 (Sept 3-5) aiming to scale Türkiye’s e-export deals after a 2024 summit topped $1bn in transaction volume. Local Industry in Syria: LC Waikiki quietly started production at a 150-worker plant in northern Syria’s Aleppo, targeting expansion and EU/UAE shipments.

Iran Sanctions Push: The US launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions to hit Iran-linked trade and sectors including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, while warning partners could lose access to the US financial system. China Pushback: Beijing called the move “illegal unilateral sanctions,” vowed to defend its interests, and urged a US-Iran ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz Logistics: Regional talks continue around a possible temporary Hormuz shipping corridor and mine-clearing, while tanker traffic shifts to alternative routes as security risks persist. Türkiye in the Crosshairs: US warnings explicitly name key Iran trading partners that include Turkey, alongside China, UAE, Iraq, India and Pakistan—raising pressure on logistics and finance links. US-Russia Intel Angle: CIA chief John Ratcliffe made a rare, unannounced visit to Moscow, adding another layer to already tense US-Russia relations. Shipping Update: MSC is resuming multiple Red Sea services through the Suez Canal, including a new Asia-to-Mediterranean Tiger loop starting from Turkey’s Mersin. Local Industry/Legal: A Turkish court acquitted defendants in a politically framed “criminal organization” case tied to tender rigging, while sanctions and enforcement remain a live business risk.

Iran Sanctions Push: The US Treasury unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” warning banks and businesses that any financial “lifeline” to Iran could mean isolation from the US system, while Iran vows harsh retaliation and targets shipping and cyber. China Pushback: China said the new sanctions are “illegal unilateral” moves and promised “all necessary measures,” as it remains a major buyer of Iranian oil. Turkey-Brazil Defense Ties: Erdoğan and Lula agreed to set up a vice-presidential strategic council to deepen defense investment and partnerships between Turkish and Brazilian firms. Turkey’s Defense Industrial Milestone: Turkish Navy Chief confirmed the first domestic MUGEM aircraft carrier launch for Sept. 27, 2027. Cyber Risk for Industry: A warning highlights growing Iranian cyber threats to critical infrastructure, adding pressure on utilities and industrial operators. Maritime Security: A Royal Navy-led counter-piracy task group handed command to South Korea after years of piracy pressure in the Indian Ocean. AI Infrastructure Deal: Lancium and Nvidia plan gigawatt-scale AI data center deployments using Nvidia’s AI factory platform. Logistics Watch: Georgia’s Poti port reported record container throughput of 404,760 TEU in Jan–Jul 2026, signaling rising Black Sea corridor demand.

Iran Sanctions Shock: The US launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” warning countries and companies that doing business with Iran could trigger secondary sanctions and loss of access to the US dollar system, with new pressure aimed at oil, shipping, finance and other revenue channels. Syria Re-Entry for Investors: Washington removed Syria from its State Sponsor of Terrorism list, a move Damascus says clears a major barrier to investment and rebuilding. Türkiye-Qatar Trade Push: Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said Türkiye and Qatar are targeting $5B in bilateral trade, citing a surge in contractor activity in Qatar and the need for alternative logistics routes as Hormuz disruptions bite. Agriculture Output Claim: Turkey’s agriculture minister said Türkiye ranked 7th globally and 1st in Europe in agricultural output, pointing to irrigation expansion and large-scale afforestation. Defense Diplomacy: Erdogan discussed defense cooperation with Lithuania, while Lula and Erdogan mapped a roadmap to deepen Türkiye-Brazil ties with a focus on defense industry collaboration. Maritime Demand: Dry bulk carrier demand stayed strong in early 2026, with higher deal activity and improved market fundamentals.

Central Banking: Turkey’s central bank is reviving one-week repo auctions after a suspension, reopening a TRY 1bn auction at the 37% policy rate and signaling tighter funding conditions ahead of the Sept. 10 MPC meeting. Defense & Aerospace: FNSS unveiled the U-MAV unmanned amphibious vehicle at TEKNOFEST Blue Homeland, built to support first-wave landings with modular mission variants. Energy & Infrastructure: Turkey-linked developments include Iraq proposing to raise oil exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan to 750,000 bpd, using tanker trucks while pipeline flows continue. Cyber & Power Security: Iran-linked hackers were blamed for shutting down a small UK power facility for four days, highlighting risks for energy operators. Regional Industry Diplomacy: Erdoğan held calls with Lithuania and Brazil, stressing defense-industry cooperation and broader trade and investment ties. Agriculture & Water: DSİ data show dam occupancy and precipitation rising sharply versus last year, but experts warn the drought is not necessarily over. Tech for Media Workflows: EditShare will showcase AI-assisted production workflows at IBC 2026 in Amsterdam, aiming to connect storage, discovery and collaboration.